- Heat waves are one of the most extreme events that cause “higher deaths worldwide” and will have “more consequences in the future due to climate change,” affirms Frédéry Bousset, research director of the CNRS and professor at ENS Lyon. . And global warming will increase heat waves.
- Along with four other researchers, Freddy Bouchet was interested in a better way to predict these extreme events, especially thanks to the possibilities of artificial intelligence “in a simple and quick way”.
- After three years of research, they now have proof that a computer program can predict heat waves up to a month in advance.
“We now have evidence that we can make predictions from thisArtificial intelligence (IA)”, says Freddy Bouchet, research director, proudly CNRS and Professor at ENS. For three years, he has been working with four other researchers on this project to propose a fast and simple way to predict extreme events.
So far this is it Weather report Who does this prediction work? High-performance computers calculate equations that describe the movement of the atmosphere, such as temperature, precipitation, wind or pressure. The researchers’ goal is for the computer program to be “better” than the weather station’s predictions.
A prediction a month in advance
A team of scientists then proposed a “complementary” approach to this classic method using “machine learning.” For an AI to be reliable, it needs to be trained with a lot of data. Knowing that is a complicated step Heat waves Very rare and rarely seen in the past. Thus, researchers have appealed flexibility “. This simulator of the 2000s climate representative has been running for 8,000 years to collect enough synthetic data and integrate it into the instrument. “These are the same models used to read the report. IPCC “, notes Lyonnais.
Now, given the weather fields to a computer program — installed on a computer, for example — “it calculates the probability that there will be a heat wave a month in advance,” exclaims the research director.
Instant response thanks to AI
An important advance from a scientific and climate perspective. “Artificial intelligence makes it possible to get an immediate answer in a very simple way,” he adds. A significant benefit for alerting the population and better risk management.
Freddie Bouchet emphasizes the weight of such a program in the fight against global warming. He remembered nowSouth Asia records extreme heat waves, has not yet been observed. 15 people died due to heatstroke. That, on the other side of the globe, theArgentina also suffers from intermittent drought.
Tool not working yet
“Heat waves are one of the most dangerous extreme events in the world,” he says. “With global warming, they will increase with serious consequences for population, economy, agriculture and all other sectors. They will affect African countries and South India, but also Europe. It is in this region that climate change is fastest.” We observe. » In the periodBy the summer of 2003, more than 70,000 had died Inside Europe Due to high heat.
Research on the predictive tool was carried out in France, but it could be “easily” used anywhere on the planet, Lyonnais details.
However, the program in question will only work for users in the next few years. Meanwhile, the same approach will be applied to other research related to environmental change. “We are going to use this tool to study how to produce electricity from renewable energies in the future, which will vary according to very rare cases, and in relation to demand”, notes the expert.
